SOMETIMES, I wish the system had placed ministers and politicians at the bottom of the priority list, and for their spouses, children, relatives and servants to take their turn for the Covid-19 vaccine based on only medical priority.

When their lives and those of their loved ones are on the line, they will be forced to look at things with a clarity that was not there before – the ever-present danger that one of them or their cherished ones will get the dreaded disease, and maybe even die as a result.

Then, they will open their eyes; their vision immediately transformed by the realisation of what could happen to them and those nearest and dearest, and force them into a serious rethink to take the actions that they need to take now.

Now, they are safe in their vaccinated cocoons, many of whom already receiving both doses, as have their families and relatives. They, especially a heartless finance minister, can glibly talk, about how a total lockdown will cost the economy dearly. Let people die to allow others to make money? How callous!

They don’t realise or can’t see beyond their blinkered visions that if the rate of infections continues at this pace, it is inevitable that a lockdown is imposed because the numbers will be too high and impact on the economy will be much worse if nothing is done.

As Covid-19 numbers continue to rise, keeping economic sectors open because the government is scared of losing revenue is foolish, says the writer, especially when people’s lives are at risk as a large portion of the population remains unvaccinated. – The Vibes file pic, May 25, 2021
As Covid-19 numbers continue to rise, keeping economic sectors open because the government is scared of losing revenue is foolish, says the writer, especially when people’s lives are at risk as a large portion of the population remains unvaccinated. – The Vibes file pic, May 25, 2021

Why we need a lockdown

Let me first try to articulate how desperately bad the situation is and why it calls for an immediate lockdown. Last week, 346 people died from Covid-19. Daily infections are reaching 7,000 and are remaining around that level – an unprecedented high.

In a scene reminiscent of Italy, Germany and the United States a few months ago, the Sg Buloh Covid-19 hospital is using shipping containers as a morgue to store bodies. Quarantine centres are overcrowded, filthy, and may even be centres for infection.

New South African, United Kingdom and dreaded Indian variants are already here, raising the spectre of an increase in infections and chances of younger people being infected. In fact, an increasing number of people now dying are younger than previously.

We are not talking about factory clusters anymore – our dumb disinterest in controlling them has meant much greater community and sporadic infections – infection from just about anywhere is the main source of infection these days.

Hospitals are at 113% usage for Covid-19 facilities in the Klang Valley and at more than 90% nationwide. Frontliners are working day and night to deal with the crowd of Covid-19 patients. Those who would ordinarily have been treated at hospitals are asked to treat themselves at home.

The infectivity rate, R-naught, is high at 1.2. This means that every 1,000 people infected will in turn infect 1,200 more, and if this is not checked, it will increase exponentially.

Every 1,000 people infected with Covid-19 will in turn infect 1,200 more, based on the R-naught of the country. – Noor Hisham Abdullah Facebook pic, May 25, 2021
Every 1,000 people infected with Covid-19 will in turn infect 1,200 more, based on the R-naught of the country. – Noor Hisham Abdullah Facebook pic, May 25, 2021

Take a good hard look at the chart. This tells the story like no other. We recovered well from last year’s September fiasco, when the government allowed the Sabah elections, and increased numbers from the glove factories towards year-end 2020. The infectivity rate dropped to 0.8 and number of cases declined from as high as nearly 7,000 to under 1,000 when the movement control order (MCO) was implemented and strictly enforced.

And then, inexplicably, for no good reason, things were relaxed. Restaurants, schools and places of worship were opened, seating restrictions at restaurants were removed, Ramadan bazaars were set up, inter-district travel was eased, and more, even though the health authorities warned this might cause an increase in numbers.

And increase they did – with a vengeance. If you look towards the right side of the chart, the current numbers have actually exceeded the forecast ones. With R-naught at 1.2, there will be an acceleration of new causes.

R-naught needs to be brought down to below 1.0 and closer to 0.8 to force an exponential reduction of cases, otherwise there will be disaster – we are looking at 10,000 cases. That’s entirely probable now. Remember, from the 1,000 around the end of March till now, in less than two months, new cases are nearly seven-fold at almost 7,000.

With R-naught at its highest level in May, it indicates that the movement control order has not been effective. – Noor Hisham Abdullah Facebook pic, May 25, 2021
With R-naught at its highest level in May, it indicates that the movement control order has not been effective. – Noor Hisham Abdullah Facebook pic, May 25, 2021

The second chart shows that there is a close relationship between R-naught and the number of cases. R-naught is now at its highest level in May, increasing from 1.1 at the start of the month. In other words, the MCO is not effective.

Health Director-General Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah has already warned that there will be increased Covid-19 cases from Hari Raya, which indicates that things will worsen before they get better, and that can only happen if the right steps are taken now.

The only thing that can reverse this process firmly is a lockdown.

What a lockdown will do

Dr Noor Hisham, in the absence of a government-mandated lockdown, has been forced to call for a self-imposed lockdown. But, that won’t work because it does not have the force of law. Malaysia needs a lockdown that will be strictly enforced.

What a lockdown will do is severely curtail human-to-human contact and break the course of the virus. If the virus has nowhere to go, it stays in the body – as Dr Noor Hisham says. After 14 days, a Covid-19 patient typically can’t infect anyone else as the virus has run the course in his body, hence, the cycle is broken.

That’s when the numbers come down sharply. It will be necessary to enforce the lockdown strongly to have this impact, but it is better than anything else in our arsenal to bring the Covid-19 numbers down quickly. We need to do it now.

That buys valuable time for frontliners – hospitals will have more time to prepare, and there will be less congestion, fewer deaths from Covid-19, no overloads – and we won’t have bodies spilling out of hospitals.

But, let’s not be complacent this time. When things improve, controls should be removed slowly. Keep standard operating procedures intact and limit human contact. Don’t go opening up in a hurry, foolishly, like we did last time.

Now, the contentious part: will it really ruin the economy? And will it affect the poor severely? The answer to the first is no, it will not be ruinous to the economy. The answer to the second is that the effects can be mitigated by the government.

Let’s assume that 50% of the economy shuts down as a result; essential services still run. A two-week shutdown means some 4% (2/52) of 50% production will be affected, or 2% of the economy.

So, instead of the economy growing 6% to 7.5% as the minister projected for this year, it will now grow 4% to 5.5% instead. That’s still very good under the circumstances. We have had nominal incomes fall by two-digit levels before and there was good recovery after.

Also, remember that if the infection rates climb higher, more people are affected and medical services break down completely, you have to impose a lockdown then – one that will be far more severe than one that is imposed now.

Yes, the poor during this lockdown will need help, especially those who work in the informal economy who have no source of income otherwise. But, the government knows who they are, or ought to know by now. Help them directly with grants.

If there are two million of them, give them RM500 each to ensure they get enough to eat for two weeks. That will cost RM1 billion – surely a sum that this government can afford.

These are tough times that call for tough measures. This is no time to be pussyfooting around when lives are at stake, as are the very survival and well-being of a lot of us. If this government does not have the guts and gumption to do the right thing, then just step down and let someone else take over.

People are quite fed up with the handling of Covid-19, which has permitted things to decline to such a serious level. – The Vibes, May 25, 2021

P. Gunasegaram says a crisis calls for cool heads and clever calls. He is executive director of Sekhar Institute and editorial consultant of The Vibes